by James 

Predictions for March 30 OOTP Simulator

8 Comments

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As the games were played late in my time, I decided to update in the morning. The results are six out of the eight games were predicted correctly by the OOTP simulation module.

Boston did win last night but by a narrow margin. It's the beginning of the season, so we shouldn't be surprised to see teams working out the kinks. Also, if teams are breaking down, the simulator will likely reflect that in future runs.

NOTE: I've decided to combine the previous day's commentary about the simulator into the predictions for the current run. 

Houston should have won the game, but with a strength indicator of 1.15, that's not a given. The bigger upset has to be the LA Dodgers loss to Arizona. This is about as big as Boston's lost on opening day. Again, chalk it up to early season.

Some Thoughts on the Simulation Module

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It's entirely possible that I am not using the simulator in the way it was designed for use. There isn't much information available on how it should be used, or at least, I have yet to find proper instructions on its use. There are some vague instructions in the manual. But, until I do find something that describes its use, I am going to proceed with the experiment.

I can't commit to predicting every game.for the season, but I'll get as many as I can. I start a brand new game before every simulation to make sure that player and team  stats get updated. This is a new feature if version 20 of the program. This makes it easy to start up at any point during the season as if you've been playing all season. It also makes it convenient to run the simulator before each game as I am doing.

One other note - as I have written in previous posts, when what I call the strength indicator (Runs Scored / Runs Allowed) is close for two teams, it is like tossing a coin for the results. In other words, if the simulator predicts one team, but the other wins, then you could attribute it to a low strength indicator.

But, this would imply that running the simulator several different times should yield different results each time. This didn't happen with the Mets vs Nationals. I ran the simulator (5000 runs each) four different times, and each time it came up with the Nationals winning. I will continue to try various runs with these two teams to see if the Mets ever come up as winners. The point here is that my assumption about a low strength indicator may not be correct. 

Data science is about experimenting. You want to use data in ways that are not necessarily conventional to try and discover patterns and traits from the data.

Predictions for March 30

There are fifteen games lined up for today.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Strength Indicator: 1.37

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (Home)

Predicted Winner: Washington Nationals
Strength Indicator: 1.09

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Strength Indicator: 1.12

Pittsburg Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cincinnati Reds
Strength Indicator: 1.04

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Home)

Predicted Winner: Kansas City Royals
Strength Indicator: 1.07

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Strength Indicator: 1.06

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Home)

Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Strength Indicator: 1.13

Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins (Home)

Predicted Winner: Colorado Rockies
Strength Indicator: 1.48

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Strength Indicator: 1.2

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Home)

Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Strength Indicator: 1.08

Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Chicago Cubs
Strength Indicator: 1.3

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (Home)

Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Strength Indicator: 1.02

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Strength Indicator: 1.09

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners (Home)

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.32

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Strength Indicator: 1.31

Results

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Actual Winner: Baltimore Orioles-
Predicted Incorrectly

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Predicted Winner: Washington Nationals
Actual Winner: New York Mets-
Predicted Incorrectly

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Actual Winner: Cleveland Indians-
Predicted Correctly

Pittsburg Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Game Postponed!

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Predicted Winner: Kansas City Royals
Actual Winner: Kansas City Royals-
Predicted Correctly

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Winner: Toronto Blue Jays-
Predicted Correctly

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Actual Winner: Philadelphia Phillies-
Predicted Correctly

Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Predicted Winner: Colorado Rockies
Actual Winner: Miami Marlins-
Predicted Incorrectly

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays-
Predicted Incorrectly

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Winner: Milwaukee Brewers-
Predicted Incorrectly

Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers
Predicted Winner: Chicago Cubs
Actual Winner: Texas Rangers-
Predicted Incorrectly

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Actual Winner: San Francisco Giants-
Predicted Incorrectly

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Actual Winner: Oakland Athletics-
Predicted Incorrectly

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Seattle Mariners-
Predicted Incorrectly

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers-
Predicted Correctly

About the author 

James

James is a data science writer who has several years' experience in writing and technology. He helps others who are trying to break into the technology field like data science. If this is something you've been trying to do, you've come to the right place. You'll find resources to help you accomplish this.

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  1. Great Content and Information!

    What a concise and thorough article. I found the post very detailed and Informative. So so many useful tips and tricks all on one page! Wonderful! I bookmarked to look further. I am just hearing about simulation module for the very first time. I cant wait to watch the matches to see if those predictions are actually on point.

    1. Thanks for the comment. I think the predictions do better over time than to try and catch every game. But, it’s still a fun experiment to do to see how it does. Best Regards, Jim

  2. Its interesting to know the that the Simulation module can be used to help make prediction on who will win a match. AS you have mentioned you are not sure as to how to use the simulation module, one you have been able to learn more about how it is supposed to be used, it will be great for you to share another another on regards to how to use it. Thanks for this article

    1. Thanks for the comment. As I learn more about it, I will update this website with my results. It could be the way I am using it is correct. Best Regards, Jim

  3. Analyzing data and pairing it with statistics is a brilliant approach to predicting sports outcomes. The OOTP simulator seems to be pretty spot on most of the time. In a conservative sense, it appears to at least work the majority of the time. It would be interesting to apply this to sports like boxing, golf and tennis since they only have to account for one on one competition.

    1. Hey Eric, thanks for your comment. I know OOTP has simulators for hockey, basketball, and football but I am not sure about the sports you mentioned. It doesn’t appear to be so but they are constantly updating with new stuff, so you never know.
      Best Regards,
      Jim

  4. Hi James. I have started to follow your site and I’m taking note of your successful predictions. Six out of eight games predicted correctly is huge.

    I see Boston Red Sox did win last night. Cool! For today’s predictions there are a lot of Strength Indicator pretty low. That could affect your overall results. I still hope you do as well as last night (six out of eight is really good).

    1. Hey Henry, thanks for the comment. I remember your comment from the previous post. Thanks for the follow. I think it will be a fun experiment. Glad to have you watching. Best Regards, Jim

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