Predictions for March 30 OOTP Simulator

As the games were played late in my time, I decided to update in the morning. The results are six out of the eight games were predicted correctly by the OOTP simulation module.

Boston did win last night but by a narrow margin. It's the beginning of the season, so we shouldn't be surprised to see teams working out the kinks. Also, if teams are breaking down, the simulator will likely reflect that in future runs.

NOTE: I've decided to combine the previous day's commentary about the simulator into the predictions for the current run.

Houston should have won the game, but with a strength indicator of 1.15, that's not a given. The bigger upset has to be the LA Dodgers loss to Arizona. This is about as big as Boston's lost on opening day. Again, chalk it up to early season.

Some Thoughts on the Simulation Module

It's entirely possible that I am not using the simulator in the way it was designed for use. There isn't much information available on how it should be used, or at least, I have yet to find proper instructions on its use. There are some vague instructions in the manual. But, until I do find something that describes its use, I am going to proceed with the experiment.

I can't commit to predicting every game.for the season, but I'll get as many as I can. I start a brand new game before every simulation to make sure that player and team stats get updated. This is a new feature if version 20 of the program. This makes it easy to start up at any point during the season as if you've been playing all season. It also makes it convenient to run the simulator before each game as I am doing.

One other note - as I have written in previous posts, when what I call the strength indicator (Runs Scored / Runs Allowed) is close for two teams, it is like tossing a coin for the results. In other words, if the simulator predicts one team, but the other wins, then you could attribute it to a low strength indicator.

But, this would imply that running the simulator several different times should yield different results each time. This didn't happen with the Mets vs Nationals. I ran the simulator (5000 runs each) four different times, and each time it came up with the Nationals winning. I will continue to try various runs with these two teams to see if the Mets ever come up as winners. The point here is that my assumption about a low strength indicator may not be correct.

Data science is about experimenting. You want to use data in ways that are not necessarily conventional to try and discover patterns and traits from the data.

Predictions for March 30

There are fifteen games lined up for today.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Strength Indicator: 1.37

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (Home)

Predicted Winner: Washington Nationals
Strength Indicator: 1.09

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Strength Indicator: 1.12

Pittsburg Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cincinnati Reds
Strength Indicator: 1.04

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Home)

Predicted Winner: Kansas City Royals
Strength Indicator: 1.07

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Strength Indicator: 1.06

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Home)

Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Strength Indicator: 1.13

Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins (Home)

Predicted Winner: Colorado Rockies
Strength Indicator: 1.48

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Strength Indicator: 1.2

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Home)

Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Strength Indicator: 1.08

Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Chicago Cubs
Strength Indicator: 1.3

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (Home)

Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Strength Indicator: 1.02

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Strength Indicator: 1.09

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners (Home)

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.32

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Strength Indicator: 1.31

Results

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Actual Winner: Baltimore Orioles-
Predicted Incorrectly

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Predicted Winner: Washington Nationals
Actual Winner: New York Mets-
Predicted Incorrectly

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Actual Winner: Cleveland Indians-
Predicted Correctly

Pittsburg Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Game Postponed!

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Predicted Winner: Kansas City Royals
Actual Winner: Kansas City Royals-
Predicted Correctly

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Winner: Toronto Blue Jays-
Predicted Correctly

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Actual Winner: Philadelphia Phillies-
Predicted Correctly

Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Predicted Winner: Colorado Rockies
Actual Winner: Miami Marlins-
Predicted Incorrectly

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays-
Predicted Incorrectly

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Winner: Milwaukee Brewers-
Predicted Incorrectly

Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers
Predicted Winner: Chicago Cubs
Actual Winner: Texas Rangers-
Predicted Incorrectly

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Actual Winner: San Francisco Giants-
Predicted Incorrectly

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Actual Winner: Oakland Athletics-
Predicted Incorrectly

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Seattle Mariners-
Predicted Incorrectly

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers-
Predicted Correctly

About the Author James

James is a data science writer who has several years' experience in writing and technology. He helps others who are trying to break into the technology field like data science. If this is something you've been trying to do, you've come to the right place. You'll find resources to help you accomplish this.

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