Each day that I run simulations, I will post my analysis of the previous run's predictions. With that said here is yesterday's analysis:
https://datasciencereview.com/did-the-baseball-simulator-fail-for-opening-day-2019
While writing my analysis last night, Boston was still playing the Mariners and were losing to them. This is the biggest upset in the set of predictions. OOTP predicted that Boston would win by a wide margin. This doesn't mean that there is something wrong with the simulator. I covered why this is in last night's analysis. Suffice it to say, the Mariners ended up winning.
As you can see from the predictions, Boston is up against Seattle once more. The simulator is choosing Boston with a strong lead. It's likely to happen this time.
Remember, many distributions in statistics are about probabilities, not exact outcomes. Stock prediction software does not make claims to 100% accuracy. There is no reason to think that a baseball simulator can either.
Also, should Boston continue to lose to weaker teams than themselves, the simulator will reflect that it the future simulations.
Here are the predictions for today's games.
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Home)
Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Strength Indicator: 1.13
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins (Home)
Predicted Winner: Colorado Rockies
Strength Indicator: 1.36
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Home)
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Strength Indicator: 1.15
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Home)
Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Strength Indicator: 1.06
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics (Home)
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Strength Indicator: 1.06
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners (Home)
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.46
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (Home)
Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Strength Indicator: 1.06
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Home)
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Strength Indicator: 1.32
Results
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Winner: Toronto Blue Jays-
Predicted Correctly
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Predicted Winner: Colorado Rockies
Actual Winner: Colorado Rockies-
Predicted Correctly
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays-
Predicted Incorrectly
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Winner: St. Louis Cardinals-
Predicted Correctly
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Actual Winner: Los Angeles Angels-
Predicted Correctly
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Boston Red Sox-
Predicted Correctly
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Actual Winner: San Diego Padres-
Predicted Correctly
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks-
Predicted Incorrectly
Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Winner: Toronto Blue Jays-
Predicted Correctly
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Predicted Winner: Colorado Rockies
Actual Winner: Colorado Rockies-
Predicted Correctly
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays-
Predicted Incorrectly
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Winner: St. Louis Cardinals-
Predicted Correctly
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Actual Winner: Los Angeles Angels-
Predicted Correctly
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Boston Red Sox-
Predicted Correctly
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Actual Winner: San Diego Padres-
Predicted Correctly
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks-
Predicted Incorrectly
