by James 

OOTP Predictions for April 4 2019

16 Comments

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The predictions for yesterday's games were better than they have been. I'd like to suggest that it's because teams are starting to find themselves, but we'll see if that is what happens over the next few weeks. The simulations should improve as the players and teams find their grooves. The results are nine games predicted correctly and five were incorrect.

Boston won as was predicted, but the Yankees stalled against Detroit. Another big upset from the simulation was Texas beating Houston. The simulator had Houston winning handily.

Starting with tomorrow's predictions, I am going to run two sets of simulations, one with 5,000 games and another with 10,000 games. Honestly, I don't foresee the results being that much different, but then again, that is what experimentation is about. I'll report the predictions for both as well as the result differentials the following day after the games are played. 

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DISCLAIMER: This article is part of a series that is measuring the effectiveness of a simulator to predict baseball outcomes. It should not be misconstrued as advice for picks in which to earn money such as fantasy sports or gambling arenas. The owner of this website cannot be held responsible for the prediction results and you understand that you proceed at your own risk!

OOTP Predictions for April 4, 2019

MLB.com listed the following two games as postponed:

Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Therefore, there are eight teams playing today.

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Kansas City Royals
Strength Indicator: 1.09

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Strength Indicator: 0.93

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Strength Indicator: 1.59

Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (Home)

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.27

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Strength Indicator: 1.29

Cinncinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Home)

Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Strength Indicator: 1.03

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves (Home)

Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Strength Indicator: 0.97

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Strength Indicator: 0.98

Results

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Predicted Winner: Kansas City Royals
Actual Winner: Detroit Tigers-
Predicted Incorrectly

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Actual Winner: Washington Nationals-
Predicted Incorrectly

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Actual Winner: New York Yankees-
Predicted Correctly

Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Oakland Athletics-
Predicted Incorrectly

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians
Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Actual Winner: Cleveland Indians-
Predicted Correctly

Cinncinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates-
Predicted Correctly

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Actual Winner: Atlanta Braves-
Predicted Correctly

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Actual Winner: Texas Rangers-
Predicted Incorrectly

About the author 

James

James is a data science writer who has several years' experience in writing and technology. He helps others who are trying to break into the technology field like data science. If this is something you've been trying to do, you've come to the right place. You'll find resources to help you accomplish this.

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  1. I  don’t not like to gamble, but I have been following your statistically intelligent predictions, and I’m going to try to play some of the games you’ve predicted. I’m well aware that nothing is cast in stone in the world of gambling. However they say the world belongs to those who are able to take the risk for the reward they desire.

    1. Hey Louis, thanks for your comment. To be honest, this experiment is not for the purposes of gambling. It is to see how well the simulator does with its predictions. Please don’t misconstrue the purpose of this experiment.

  2. Thanks for previous prediction. I followed the Boston game and saw that they won the game. The predictions do seem to be getting better but is too early to tell as you state. I hope it improves day-by-day including your current predictions. I was even surprised by several of the predictions. You are really doing a good job keep it up

  3. I will commend you for taking time to write this post on OOTP Predictions for April 4 2019, it’s actually a good one but I really find predictions very difficult if not interesting. I see it as a game of the mind, and when you don’t get your predictions correctly, it seems like your mind played some tricks on you. 

    1. Hey Barry, thanks for your comment. My motivation with using the simulation engine is to learn how well it does with its predictions. From that vantage point, I don’t wish for it to be right or wrong. I am just reporting on the results. Best Regards, Jim

  4. Hi James, 

    The OOTP Predictions for April 4, 2019, seems quite reasonable. I agree with most of the predictions. On a normal day, those predicted to win, have a high likelihood to win. 

    The OOTP Predictions for April 4, 2019, has been a big help to me in my betting lately. I am always keeping a date with your posts, so that I will be well guided in my betting. 

    1. Thanks for the comment. Please be aware that these predictions are purely for informational purposes and are not to be misconstrued as advice for the purposes of gambling. Proceed at your own risk. The information on this website is an experiment to determine the viability of simulators in making predictions.

  5. This is an informative article, Orioles has been better so far; they rivaled the 2003 Detroit Tigers last season in losses and have since come on strong at the start of the season. Though it’s still early in the season, but the O’s might pull a stunt on us this year. How reliable is the software so far?

    1. Hey Jay, thanks for your input. So far, the predictions have not been doing well. Today is the first day in several there were more correct predictions than not. The Orioles have been strong out of the gate. Several commentators don’t expect this to last. I am also interested in the strength of Seattle who has also been strong.
      Best Regards,
      Jim

  6. I’ve never seen this type of simulation before. It seems to work well from what I’ve read. What are the percentages of success with this simulation? I would assume it would be about 40-60% success just as a guess but that could be higher if you input different player stats and what not. What stats is this running to get the result? Great post by the way!

    1. Hey Paul, thanks for your comment. Your guess on the success rate is pretty good but it’s early in the season. I don’t know what goes into the simulator but based on the fact that it has successfully predicted most teams for the playoffs and the winner of the World Series two years in a row, I am going to assume it accounts for player stats, team stats, ballpark stats, etc.
      Best Regards,
      Jim

  7. Thanks for writing this article on OOTP predications for April 4 2019.i must commend you for a well done job for taking your time to write the this prediction, Some of the predictions match with the predictions I have made personally. I’ll keep tabs on this website to see how the other predictions play out.

    Your article on the OOTP Predictions for April 4  2019 is much appreciated. Now I know how to make head way with my betting activities. 

    These predictions almost seem like an April Fool’s joke. Having two that have strengths less than 1. because they are closely matched .

    1. Hey Mustapha, thanks for your comment. To start, be aware that these predictions are for informational purposes only. Please don’t misconstrue the predictions as advice for the purposes of earning money and gambling. You proceed at your own risk when doing so.

  8. This is fun!

    Do you pick these at random? I noticed that a lot of the winning teams are playing “home”– do you think this is a significant advantage to winning? Whenever I played sports, and we were the home team I felt like our confidence was much higher. We were used to every roll of the field and just different aspects. Does this play into how you decide who would win?

    Interesting article!

    Thanks for sharing,

    Ciara

    1. Hi Ciara, thanks for your comment. There must be a certain amount of randomness in the software. As I have written in a previous post, I do set the software for home field advantage as to who is actually the home team.
      Best Regards,
      Jim

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