by James 

OOTP Predictions for April 1 2019

14 Comments

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The OOTP predictions for April 1, 2019 are ready, and they a likely to make you think it's some kind of April Fool's joke. Unfortunately, that is not the case. The results were rather bad once again.

Green Baseball Diamond

My initial inclination was to run simulations less frequently. However, experiments don't always work out the way you planned. There is value in the process. I have decided to continue with the experiment and run the simulator for as many days during the season as I can. I will continue to report on the predictions exactly as they occur. I will update with the actual results. 

In this run, I chose the field of the home team to see if that would alter the results. It didn't seem to help much. However, going forward, I will use this option since the point of the experiment is to see if the simulator could predict the games played and played at the home team's stadium.

One important note to consider - the simulation does appear to be adjusting based on the results which something you would expect in a simulator. For instance, when Boston first played Seattle on opening day, they had a strength indicator (Runs Scored / Runs Allowed) of 1.46. The indicator before playing yesterday's game was 1.14. Obviously, the simulator now believes either that Boston is a weaker team against Seattle or that Seattle is a stronger team.

This kind of analysis has value too. In data science, you often need to look past the obvious of what the data is both telling you and not telling you. While it's important to run the correct algorithms, proper interpretation is crucial for the process.

Here are the results for March 31.

I could understand if the teams that are somewhat evenly matched were the ones where the simulation predicted incorrectly, but the strong teams like the Yankees and Boston lost when they should have won.

OOTP Predictions for April 1, 2019

One aspect to note in this set of predictions is there are two that contain strength indicators < 1. I have explained this in previous articles. It would likely be due to low scoring games or games where the team with the higher overall runs scored have more home runs hit or stolen bases or stolen bases, etc. This usually happens when two teams are closely matched.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Home)

Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Strength Indicator: 1.24

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Strength Indicator: 1.36

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Strength Indicator: 1.37

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cinncinnati Reds (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cinncinnati Reds
Strength Indicator: 0.94

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Strength Indicator: 1.14

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Strength Indicator: 1.46

Colorado Rockies Rockies vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Strength Indicator: 1

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves (Home)

Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Strength Indicator: 0.93

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Strength Indicator: 1.38

Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (Home)

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.23

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Strength Indicator: 1.32

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (Home)

Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Strength Indicator: 1.1

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Strength Indicator: 1.59

Results

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Predicted Correctly

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Actual Winner: Cleveland Indians
Predicted Correctly

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Actual Winner: New York Yankees
Predicted Correctly

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cinncinnati Reds
Predicted Winner: Cinncinnati Reds
Actual Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Incorrectly

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Winner: Baltimore Orioles
Predicted Incorrectly

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Actual Winner: New York Mets
Predicted Correctly

Colorado Rockies Rockies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Correctly

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Actual Winner: Atlanta Braves
Predicted Correctly

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Houston Astros
Predicted Correctly

Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Oakland Athletics
Predicted Incorrectly

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Actual Winner: Seattle Mariners
Predicted Incorrectly

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Actual Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
Predicted Incorrectly

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: San Francisco Giants
Predicted Incorrectly

About the author 

James

James is a data science writer who has several years' experience in writing and technology. He helps others who are trying to break into the technology field like data science. If this is something you've been trying to do, you've come to the right place. You'll find resources to help you accomplish this.

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  1. Baseball is chocked full of statistics – possibly more than any other sport I know.  Statistics only give you a probability of one thing happening over another.  Baseball has other variables that you don’t account for.

    Certainly home field advantage is one.  The home team will always have an advantage over a visiting team unless the home team is weak and the visiting team is strong.  

    Weather could form another variable.  Rain delays can sap a team’s momentum.  Cold temperature and wind speeds can affect the players.

    At the end of the day, so long as the Red Sox beat the Yankees, nothing else really matters.

    Ellen, Red Sox Nation

    1. Hey Ellen, thanks for the visit and your comment. If both Boston and the Yankees keep losing to weaker teams, neither one will have a shot at the playoffs, let alone the World Series. I still think it’s early season jitters, though. Best Regards,
      Jim

  2. Thanks for writing this article on ooTp predications for April 1 2019.i must commend you for a well done job for taking your time to write the this prediction, Some of the predictions match with the predictions I have made personally. I’ll keep tabs on this website to see how the other predictions play out.

  3. Hi James. 

    Your article on the OOTP Predictions for April 1 2019 is much appreciated. Now I know how to make head way with my betting activities. 

    The OOTP Predictions for April 1 2019 truly seems like an April fool’s joke. Having two that have strengths less than 1. because they are closely matched will make my betting decisions tough today. 

    1. Thank you for your comment. To be clear, I am running this experiment for purely educational purposes. Please don’t mistake these predictions for betting recommendations. Best Regards, Jim

  4. Hello James, the results of the OOTP predictions for April might look bad, however like you rightly said, experiments don’t usually work out the way one planned except for controlled experiments. You are doing a great job with your simulations.

    Most of the predictions seems to be favouring the home teams except in that of St Louis Cardinals, New York Mets and few others. I look forward to reading more of your report on the next predictions.

    1. Hey Gracen, welcome back! Thanks for your post. Your spot on with your comment and it will be interesting to see how it develops over time.
      Best Regards,
      Jim

  5. Thank you for this OOTP data analysis. Most times gathering data of sequences and previous records to determine future event is a herculean task. However, studying and monitoring the strength indicators of a team is usually key in determining a favourable prediction. I will try out your predictions.

    And yes, you are right by saying that in data analysis, one needs to look past the obvious of what the data is and give proper interpretations aside focusing solely on the algorithms. Thank you for this insightful article.

    1. Thank you for your comment. Using past records to determine future events is part of what data science is about in some ways. But, your point is well taken.
      Best Regards,
      Jim

  6. Hello, James.  

    Interesting post.  I never would have thought one could use an algorithm to try and predict the outcome of a baseball game and I wouldn’t even want to try and figure out all the necessary data that would need to be input to come up with those predictions.

    To me, there would just be so many unpredictable things that could happen in a baseball game that make it even harder to predict a winner.  Things like a team having a bad day or a player getting injured or maybe the Pitchers are having a bad day.

    Just too many things that I don’t even think an algorithm could take into consideration. 

    I’m not a gambler but I would be interested in knowing what the success/failure rate is and how it has been in the past.

    I would also be interested to know what kind of info you would plug into your algorithm. 

    All the best,

    Wayne

    1. Hey Wayne, thanks for the great comment. You are correct in stating that there are many variables to make this a huge undertaking. Yet, the software was able to predict accurately the past two playoff outcomes and the winners of the World Series in both years. It is supported by sportscasters and the MLB. This is what sparked my interest in experimenting with the software to see how it does on a game-by-game basis.
      Best Regards,
      Jim

  7. Hi James. I’m glad to be here again. I’ve been looking forward for another prediction post from you, I guess March 31 wasn’t quite good but worth it, there are few that were predicted correctly. I’ll be looking forward for the result of today. I hope it’s turns good again. Thanks for sharing your simulation and prediction. 

    Alex

    1. Hey Alex, welcome back and thanks for the comment. Yeah, as this is an experiment, I am not hoping one way or another to be honest – unless it’s the Mets 🙂 I am only reporting on the results of the simulator. People can interpret those results however they like.
      Best Regards,
      Jim

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