by James 

OOTP Predictions for April 7 2019

10 Comments

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The simulation module for the OOTP Predictions for April 6 2019 predicted correctly 9 out of 15 games. This is something we should expect from a simulator capable of predicting the World Series and most of the playoff games  two years in a row. The simulator seems to be adjusting to the teams' results. 

Yesterday, I tried to run a full season simulation starting with the team and player stats from yesterday's date. It took several hours to complete and the results were messed up. There were several negative numbers of games along with many other numbers that didn't make much sense. I will have to ask the software developer why this is the case. I will run the same simulation again in debug mode so I can send the log files to the developers. 

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Boston is becoming a no-story situation. They are struggling to get out of the gate as they keep losing to what are largely considered inferior teams. The team should be past the opening season jitters or kinks or whatever. It's time to "put up or shut up" as they say. The simulator still shows Boston winning over Arizona in today's game. But, the strength indicator is not a runway.

Boston does seem to be in a downward slope. Trends tend to continue until something definitive breaks that trend. For instance, the Yankees had a rough season start but seem to be shaping up. Seattle continues to surprise to the upside. It's not that they were expected to be a losing team. It's just they were not expected to remain as strong as they have been playing. Tampa Bay falls into this category, too.Both of these teams have strong trends sloping upwards.

What to Make of the Simulator

As Boston has shown us, relying completely on the simulator's results since opening day would have produced disappointing results. Most simulation runs predicted Boston winning and actual results for the team hardly reflect that. Out of 10 games played so far, they have won 2.

The point is that the simulations are based on a software algorithm that run based on statistics. These results are void of emotions or human factors. Something is going on that is preventing a powerhouse team like Boston from being the team everyone expected. But, the simulator continues to predict wins for the team. As a human, you will not likely trust the simulator's picks for Boston unless the team gets it together soon and they show a definitive reversal of their losing trend. It goes to show that data science is about more than running algorithms. 

Thinking in this manner about the results is a difficult task for current AI technologies. Research has advanced AI to get better results than ever before. However, perhaps this shows us that you can never truly remove the human factor from the equation, nor should you. What this means for you is to always consider what is going on with the teams rather than relying completely on the predictions, even though they are getting better. Let Boston's results serve as a reminder.

OOTP Predictions for April 7 2019

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Detroit Tigers
Strength Indicator: 9.663

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Strength Indicator: 0.934

Cinncinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Home)

Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Strength Indicator: 1.004

Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Home)

Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Strength Indicator: 1.22

Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox (Home)

Predicted Winner: Seattle Mariners
Strength Indicator: 1.07

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Home)

Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Strength Indicator: 1.194

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Strength Indicator: 1.097

Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants (Home)

Predicted Winner: San Francisco Giants
Strength Indicator: 1.003

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Strength Indicator: 1.32

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Strength Indicator: 1.635

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Strength Indicator: 0.941

Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros (Home)

Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Strength Indicator: 1.421

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves (Home)

Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Strength Indicator: 1.39

Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona D-backs (Home)

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.143

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Strength Indicator: 1.181

Results

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers

Predicted Winner: Detroit Tigers
Actual Winner: Detroit Tigers
Predicted Correctly

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Actual Winner: Washington Nationals
Predicted Incorrectly

Cinncinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted Correctly

Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Actual Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted Correctly

Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox

Predicted Winner: Seattle Mariners
Actual Winner: Seattle Mariners
Predicted Correctly

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Predicted Correctly

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Actual Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Predicted Correctly

Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants

Predicted Winner: San Francisco Giants
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Incorrectly

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Actual Winner: Cleveland Indians
Predicted Correctly

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Actual Winner: New York Yankees
Predicted Correctly

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Predicted Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Actual Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Correctly

Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros

Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Houston Astros
Predicted Correctly

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves

Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Actual Winner: Atlanta Braves
Predicted Correctly

Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona D-backs

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Boston Red Sox
Predicted Correctly

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Correctly

About the author 

James

James is a data science writer who has several years' experience in writing and technology. He helps others who are trying to break into the technology field like data science. If this is something you've been trying to do, you've come to the right place. You'll find resources to help you accomplish this.

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  1. Interesting stats here for these predictions. I don’t think anything is infallible, however, and I don’t think I could ever fully trust a simulator to tell me where to put my bets.

    Although looking at the list of results again, it has been quite accurate in some of the cases. Humans are unpredictable, even if the simulators run using statistics.

  2. Very interesting… I am curious to know what is exactly a data science writer? Usually I am in football betting and I do this mostly at major football games, mainly the last 2 mondials! I do it for some fun but never seriously understood how predictions happen. It is a world that captures my interest with all its magic and intelligence. Best of Luck with all of your endeavors 🙂

    1. Thanks for your comment. Data science is a combination of multiple disciplines, statistics, data analysis, computer science, and business intelligence. It helps people learn the gems from their data. FYI, the OOTP group has a simulator for football, too! Best Regards, Jim

  3. I really enjoy this OOTP prediction , for long time I’m searching like this prediction site, and finally got it. I appreciated the site.

    And I will continue visiting the site to get more experience on prediction. and I thing the site will improve it’s capacity for long time.

    Thank you for sharing this important site.

    1. Hey Mustapha, welcome back. It’s nice to see familiar commenters on my website. I am glad you are enjoying the experiment with the simulator. I am too. Best Regards, Jim

  4. Hi James. Yesterday results are quite fair enough. But I had no idea you didn’t develop the stimulator, I always think you are the developer. To today’s games, the strength indicator for Detroit Tiger is quite big, I guess I haven’t  seen a strength indicator that big on here before. I’ll be looking forward to the results. 

    Alex

    1. Hey Alex, welcome back. Today’s results are already shaping to be even better. While I am unwilling to draw any conclusions that the simulator is improving, I am willing to state that I suspect that to be the case, as I have mentioned in previous posts. I am enjoying this experiment because it lets me see the results and whether they confirm my suspicions, etc. Thanks for the comment.

  5. Artificial Intelligence, no matter how highly advanced only works like every other computer, through garbage in garbage out. 

    So the OOTP Predictions are operated on the data and information fed into the program. I believe the data fed into the program with regards to the Boston team places them at advantage, so now that they are beginning to decline, the program keeps giving them wins. 

    So far, even with the cons that come with this system, it has proven to be right more that it has been wrong. So, I recommend it. 

    1. Welcome back! And thanks for the comment. It does seem to be improving. In fact, although not all the games are finished yet, the simulator is correct 11 out of the 15 games thus far for today. Best Regards, Jim

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