The simulation module for the OOTP Predictions for April 6 2019 predicted correctly 9 out of 15 games. This is something we should expect from a simulator capable of predicting the World Series and most of the playoff games two years in a row. The simulator seems to be adjusting to the teams' results.
Yesterday, I tried to run a full season simulation starting with the team and player stats from yesterday's date. It took several hours to complete and the results were messed up. There were several negative numbers of games along with many other numbers that didn't make much sense. I will have to ask the software developer why this is the case. I will run the same simulation again in debug mode so I can send the log files to the developers.
Boston is becoming a no-story situation. They are struggling to get out of the gate as they keep losing to what are largely considered inferior teams. The team should be past the opening season jitters or kinks or whatever. It's time to "put up or shut up" as they say. The simulator still shows Boston winning over Arizona in today's game. But, the strength indicator is not a runway.
Boston does seem to be in a downward slope. Trends tend to continue until something definitive breaks that trend. For instance, the Yankees had a rough season start but seem to be shaping up. Seattle continues to surprise to the upside. It's not that they were expected to be a losing team. It's just they were not expected to remain as strong as they have been playing. Tampa Bay falls into this category, too.Both of these teams have strong trends sloping upwards.
What to Make of the Simulator
As Boston has shown us, relying completely on the simulator's results since opening day would have produced disappointing results. Most simulation runs predicted Boston winning and actual results for the team hardly reflect that. Out of 10 games played so far, they have won 2.
The point is that the simulations are based on a software algorithm that run based on statistics. These results are void of emotions or human factors. Something is going on that is preventing a powerhouse team like Boston from being the team everyone expected. But, the simulator continues to predict wins for the team. As a human, you will not likely trust the simulator's picks for Boston unless the team gets it together soon and they show a definitive reversal of their losing trend. It goes to show that data science is about more than running algorithms.
Thinking in this manner about the results is a difficult task for current AI technologies. Research has advanced AI to get better results than ever before. However, perhaps this shows us that you can never truly remove the human factor from the equation, nor should you. What this means for you is to always consider what is going on with the teams rather than relying completely on the predictions, even though they are getting better. Let Boston's results serve as a reminder.
OOTP Predictions for April 7 2019
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers (Home)
Predicted Winner: Detroit Tigers
Strength Indicator: 9.663
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets (Home)
Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Strength Indicator: 0.934
Cinncinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Home)
Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Strength Indicator: 1.004
Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Home)
Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Strength Indicator: 1.22
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox (Home)
Predicted Winner: Seattle Mariners
Strength Indicator: 1.07
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Home)
Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Strength Indicator: 1.194
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Home)
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Strength Indicator: 1.097
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants (Home)
Predicted Winner: San Francisco Giants
Strength Indicator: 1.003
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians (Home)
Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Strength Indicator: 1.32
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Home)
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Strength Indicator: 1.635
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Home)
Predicted Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Strength Indicator: 0.941
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros (Home)
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Strength Indicator: 1.421
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves (Home)
Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Strength Indicator: 1.39
Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona D-backs (Home)
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.143
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies (Home)
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Strength Indicator: 1.181
Results
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Predicted Winner: Detroit Tigers
Actual Winner: Detroit Tigers
Predicted Correctly
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Actual Winner: Washington Nationals
Predicted Incorrectly
Cinncinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted Correctly
Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Actual Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted Correctly
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
Predicted Winner: Seattle Mariners
Actual Winner: Seattle Mariners
Predicted Correctly
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Predicted Correctly
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Actual Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Predicted Correctly
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants
Predicted Winner: San Francisco Giants
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Incorrectly
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians
Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Actual Winner: Cleveland Indians
Predicted Correctly
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Actual Winner: New York Yankees
Predicted Correctly
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Actual Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Correctly
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Houston Astros
Predicted Correctly
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Actual Winner: Atlanta Braves
Predicted Correctly
Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona D-backs
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Boston Red Sox
Predicted Correctly
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Correctly
