Data Science Review

OOTP Predictions for April 1 2019

The OOTP predictions for April 1, 2019 are ready, and they a likely to make you think it's some kind of April Fool's joke. Unfortunately, that is not the case. The results were rather bad once again.

Green Baseball Diamond

My initial inclination was to run simulations less frequently. However, experiments don't always work out the way you planned. There is value in the process. I have decided to continue with the experiment and run the simulator for as many days during the season as I can. I will continue to report on the predictions exactly as they occur. I will update with the actual results. 

In this run, I chose the field of the home team to see if that would alter the results. It didn't seem to help much. However, going forward, I will use this option since the point of the experiment is to see if the simulator could predict the games played and played at the home team's stadium.

One important note to consider - the simulation does appear to be adjusting based on the results which something you would expect in a simulator. For instance, when Boston first played Seattle on opening day, they had a strength indicator (Runs Scored / Runs Allowed) of 1.46. The indicator before playing yesterday's game was 1.14. Obviously, the simulator now believes either that Boston is a weaker team against Seattle or that Seattle is a stronger team.

This kind of analysis has value too. In data science, you often need to look past the obvious of what the data is both telling you and not telling you. While it's important to run the correct algorithms, proper interpretation is crucial for the process.

Here are the results for March 31.

I could understand if the teams that are somewhat evenly matched were the ones where the simulation predicted incorrectly, but the strong teams like the Yankees and Boston lost when they should have won.

OOTP Predictions for April 1, 2019

One aspect to note in this set of predictions is there are two that contain strength indicators < 1. I have explained this in previous articles. It would likely be due to low scoring games or games where the team with the higher overall runs scored have more home runs hit or stolen bases or stolen bases, etc. This usually happens when two teams are closely matched.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Home)

Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Strength Indicator: 1.24

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Strength Indicator: 1.36

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Strength Indicator: 1.37

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cinncinnati Reds (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cinncinnati Reds
Strength Indicator: 0.94

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Strength Indicator: 1.14

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Strength Indicator: 1.46

Colorado Rockies Rockies vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Strength Indicator: 1

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves (Home)

Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Strength Indicator: 0.93

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Strength Indicator: 1.38

Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (Home)

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.23

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Strength Indicator: 1.32

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (Home)

Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Strength Indicator: 1.1

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Strength Indicator: 1.59

Results

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Predicted Correctly

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Actual Winner: Cleveland Indians
Predicted Correctly

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Actual Winner: New York Yankees
Predicted Correctly

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cinncinnati Reds
Predicted Winner: Cinncinnati Reds
Actual Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Incorrectly

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Predicted Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Winner: Baltimore Orioles
Predicted Incorrectly

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Predicted Winner: New York Mets
Actual Winner: New York Mets
Predicted Correctly

Colorado Rockies Rockies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Correctly

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Actual Winner: Atlanta Braves
Predicted Correctly

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Houston Astros
Predicted Correctly

Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Oakland Athletics
Predicted Incorrectly

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Angels
Actual Winner: Seattle Mariners
Predicted Incorrectly

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Actual Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
Predicted Incorrectly

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: San Francisco Giants
Predicted Incorrectly

About the Author James

James is a data science writer who has several years' experience in writing and technology. He helps others who are trying to break into the technology field like data science. If this is something you've been trying to do, you've come to the right place. You'll find resources to help you accomplish this.

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