by James 

OOTP Predictions for March 31

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Baseball Diamond

The simulator did not do well with this run. Only five of the teams were predicted correctly. One game, Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati was postponed. Several games were upsets like Boston vs Seattle and Yankees vs. Orioles. These are teams that should have won handily.

Baseball Diamond

As I keep suggesting, the simulator may not have been designed to predict games on a daily basis. I will tweak the runs to include home field advantage, but for teams like the Yankees that probably would have made the results more in favor of home teams. But, perhaps it will help strengthen other teams that would have won due to home-field advantage.

I still maintain that it's early in the season, and if you have followed baseball in the past, some teams start out strong and fizzle, while others take a bit of time to get their groove. The Mets (my team) are a good example of a team who starts out strong and fizzles. Although this year, they have a good roster. And, OOTP has predicted that they will have a wildcard shot. 

Predictions for March 31

I realize this is a late-day update (3:07 PM EST). By now the 1:00 PM games are getting close to competing. You may be thinking how can predictions be made when games have already begun?

First, if you know this simulator, you would know that it does not have a live connection to the games themselves. Therefore, I could run this after all the games were played and it would produce results as if those games had not been played yet.

Second, I haven't looked at any games yet and even if I did, I would report on the numbers directly from the simulator. My experiment is to see how well the simulator does, not to publish predictions as if I made them. For this reason, there is no motivation for me to fudge the results.

You will notice one of the predictions has a strength indicator < 1. This usually indicates wins from low-scoring games. It's possible for this to happen on occasion. Teams can win with a score of 1-0. Get enough of those during simulated runs and this could be a reason why this situation occurs.

As mentioned above, I ran all of these with the home team field chosen.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Strength Indicator: 1.4

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronot Blue Jays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Toronot Blue Jays
Strength Indicator: 1.11

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cinncinnati Reds (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cinncinnati Reds
Strength Indicator: 1.06

Colorado Rockies Rockies vs. Miami Marlins (Home)

Predicted Winner: Colorado Rockies Rockies
Strength Indicator: 1.41

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Strength Indicator: 1.18

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (Home)

Predicted Winner: Washington Nationals
Strength Indicator: 1.08

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Strength Indicator: 1.14

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Strength Indicator: 0.96

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Home)

Predicted Winner: Kansas City Royals
Strength Indicator: 1.08

Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Chicago Cubs
Strength Indicator: 1.28

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics (Home)

Predicted Winner: Oakland Athletics
Strength Indicator: 1.01

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners (Home)

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.14

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (Home)

Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Strength Indicator: 1.06

Arizona D-backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Strength Indicator: 1.34

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Home)

Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Strength Indicator: 1.09

Results

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Actual Winner: Baltimore Orioles-
Predicted Incorrectly

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronot Blue Jays
Predicted Winner: Toronot Blue Jays
Actual Winner: Detroit Tigers-
Predicted Incorrectly

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cinncinnati Reds
Predicted Winner: Cinncinnati Reds
Actual Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates-
Predicted Incorrectly

Colorado Rockies Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Predicted Winner: Colorado Rockies Rockies
Actual Winner: Miami Marlins-
Predicted Incorrectly

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays-
Predicted Incorrectly

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Predicted Winner: Washington Nationals
Actual Winner: Washington Nationals-
Predicted Correctly

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Actual Winner: Minnesota Twins-
Predicted Incorrectly

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Actual Winner: Milwaukee Brewers-
Predicted Correctly

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Predicted Winner: Kansas City Royals
Actual Winner: Chicago White Sox-
Predicted Incorrectly

Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers
Predicted Winner: Chicago Cubs
Actual Winner: Texas Rangers-
Predicted Incorrectly

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Predicted Winner: Oakland Athletics
Actual Winner: Oakland Athletics-
Predicted Correctly

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Seattle Mariners-
Predicted Incorrectly

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Predicted Winner: San Diego Padres
Actual Winner: San Diego Padres-
Predicted Correctly

Arizona D-backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers-
Predicted Correctly

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Actual Winner: Philadelphia Phillies-
Predicted Correctly

About the author 

James

James is a data science writer who has several years' experience in writing and technology. He helps others who are trying to break into the technology field like data science. If this is something you've been trying to do, you've come to the right place. You'll find resources to help you accomplish this.

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