OOTP Predictions for April 12 2019

What are the OOTP Predictions for April 12 2019? You can find out what they are below. But, first, you can take a look at the results for yesterday.

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I am happy to see that my Mets won, even though it cause the simulator to experience loss for predicting Atlanta. I know it is still a looooong season for the Mets. In the past, they would start unraveling right about now. I don't say this to wish on them, of course. It's just the way things happen with them, unfortunately. But, there's always hope!

Boston won. Wow! And the simulator predicted that Boston would win. They only won by one point, however. I know a win is a win. But, the simulator showed Boston out-scoring Toronto by about 40%. 

I know that in playing 5,000 games, the law of large numbers would tend towards the 1.4 (40%) strength indicator. Still, you'd expect more of a run differential with this 40%.

As a reminder, the strength indicator (something I named) is the total runs scored divided by the total runs allowed. 

It doesn't surprise me that San Diego won even though the simulator chose the Diamondbacks. The Padres have been a strong team thus far. They are first in their division. I know there are many more factors that go into the calculation but, the standings have to play some role in it, I would think.

Should the Simulation Module Have a Better Record?

Overall, the simulator predicted 7 out of 10 games correctly for yesterday. While this isn't bad, I can't help but wonder whether an AI engine should be doing a bit better. I get that AI is a broad field. But, the implication of calling something an AI engine sets up the scenario that the algorithm should learn somehow. In fact, I have stated in previous posts on this thread that I believed the simulator would learn being that it is an AI engine.

Only the developers of the software know this answer. For me, it's just a guess. I also realize that running the simulator 5,000 times brings the results closer to the expected values, whatever they happen to be. In other words, if Boston had a strength indicator of 1.4 and it were possible for them to play Toronto 5,000 games in a single day, Boston would be the likely winner. They only play a few games together for an entire season.

As an side experiment, I ran the simulator using the One Game Elimination option for 6 times for the Yankees vs. White Sox. With all six games the Yankees won. For the regular 5,000 games with these teams the strength indicator was 1.6 with the Yankee's predicted to win.

Today's Predictions (April 12, 2019)

There are 13 games being played today. The Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins game is postponed, which would have made it 14 games. I did not run the simulator for these teams.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs (Home)

Predicted Winner: Chicago Cubs
Strength Indicator: 1.109

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals (Home)

Predicted Winner: Washington Nationals
Strength Indicator: 1.359

Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees (Home)

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Strength Indicator: 1.601

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Home)

Predicted Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Strength Indicator: 1.174

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox (Home)

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Strength Indicator: 1.596

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins (Home)

Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Strength Indicator: 1.501

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves (Home)

Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Strength Indicator: 0.991

Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Texas Rangers
Strength Indicator: 0.987

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals (Home)

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Strength Indicator: 1.297

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona D-backs (Home)

Predicted Winner: Arizona D-backs
Strength Indicator: 0.987

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners (Home)

Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Strength Indicator: 1.271

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Home)

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Strength Indicator: 1.235

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants (Home)

Predicted Winner: San Francisco Giants
Strength Indicator: 0.976

Results

Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs

Predicted Winner: Chicago Cubs
Actual Winner: Chicago Cubs
Predicted Correctly

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals

Predicted Winner: Washington Nationals
Actual Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted Incorrectly

Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees

Predicted Winner: New York Yankees
Actual Winner: Game Postponed
Predicted Incorrectly

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Predicted Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Actual Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted Correctly

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox

Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
Actual Winner: Boston Red Sox
Predicted Correctly

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Actual Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted Correctly

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
Actual Winner: New York Mets
Predicted Incorrectly

Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers

Predicted Winner: Texas Rangers
Actual Winner: Oakland Athletics
Predicted Incorrectly

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals

Predicted Winner: Cleveland Indians
Actual Winner: Kansas City Royals
Predicted Incorrectly

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona D-backs

Predicted Winner: Arizona D-backs
Actual Winner: San Diego Padres
Predicted Incorrectly

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Actual Winner: Houston Astros
Predicted Correctly

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted Incorrectly

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants

Predicted Winner: San Francisco Giants
Actual Winner: San Francisco Giants
Predicted Correctly

About the Author James

James is a data science writer who has several years' experience in writing and technology. He helps others who are trying to break into the technology field like data science. If this is something you've been trying to do, you've come to the right place. You'll find resources to help you accomplish this.

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